Well, that didn’t take long, did it?
In the fourth game of a regular season that the majority of fans have proclaimed “doesn’t matter”, the Maple Leafs displayed another uninspiring effort against a team that will likely contend for the #1 overall pick in the 2023 NHL Draft.
So naturally, we’ve reached the point of the season where it’s time to siren the alarms. Fire Keefe. Fire Dubas. Trade Matthews. Tank for Bedard. The takes are out there, and they’re coming fast and furious.
People are pissed - and quite frankly - they have every right to be, if that’s how you choose to live out your fandom. This is a team oozing with talent, and the expectation would be that they would stomp all over the Arizona Coyotes on a Monday night in October.
(Just as the expectation in Pittsburgh would be that the 2-0 Penguins should never blow a 3rd Period, two-goal lead to the lowly Montreal Canadiens and lose in OT. I’m sure the radio airwaves in Pittsburgh are abuzz with Trade Crosby and Fire Sullivan takes today. I’m sure of it!)
But the bigger question here is, should we be overreacting?
If you recall, the Maple Leafs started the 2021-22 season in a very similar fashion only to finish with a franchise-record 115 points. If you asked your diehard-Leafs Fan and Twitter keyboard warrior to recall one of the early season games in which they laid an egg last season, my guess is you'd get a blank stare back (I, for one, very much recall the night they came from behind in Chicago and turned the season around).
And that’s just it. Yes, all games matter. They’re all equal and those are two points you wish you had. But in 6 weeks, last night will be a distant memory and your opinion of this group will likely be very different. Plus, even on a night where we’d all agree it was a dismal performance, there is reason to be optimistic, even if it’s just slightly.
GAME 4 - Coyotes 4 @ Maple Leafs 2
The goals may not have come until the very end, but for most of the night, the Maple Leafs controlled possession and generated far more of the scoring chances.
According to NaturalStatTrick.com, the Maple Leafs finished with a 67% share of the shot attempts, and a 65% share of the scoring chances at 5v5. The numbers are significantly dragged down by an abysmal 2nd period in which the team finished with an expected goals for percentage (xGF%) of 26%.
You can see from the heat map below that the ice was significantly titled at 5v5, and the biggest issue on the night was an inability to finish.
Leading the way for Toronto was the top unit of Bunting-Matthews-Marner, who interestingly had a 75% share of the shot attempts but a 45% share of the expected goals. I’d imagine this is what led Sheldon Keefe to call out his elite players during his post-game scrum, as the eye test would agree that while their play in transition and offensive zone movement was strong, they lacked the high danger punch that this team relies on.
QUICK HITTERS
The Scotiabank Arena crowd was in full force with the ever-so-classic “shoooooot” calls. So interesting, as I’m sure the 70-year old woman sitting next to me has never been a part of an NHL powerplay, but I digress.
The heat map above continues to validate the eye-test that the Maple Leafs are shooting from the point more often this season, and I’m curious as to why
Jake Muzzin left the game with a neck injury. I certainly hope for the best, but you’ve got to start to think about how much this guy has left in the tank
While the Game Operations department chose to stay status quo with the Hall & Oates goal song this season (chalk me up as one of the few that enjoys it), they interestingly chose to change the Power Play song away from Kanye West’s “POWER”.
WHO STOOD OUT?
Mitch Marner
While his linemate, and reigning MVP, seems to be stuck in neutral so far this season, Marner has been dancing. He came through with a clutch goal in the 3rd Period to tie the game, and was the centre of attention in a controversial hand pass call that prevented the Leafs from forcing OT with less than a minute to play.
Justin Holl
There are times when even the Justin Holl supporters, myself included, need to call it for what it is. He flat out stunk last night, accentuated by a brutal whiff on a PK clearing attempt that led to the Coyotes’ go-ahead goal. My guess is he sits on Thursday night, with the speedy and transitional play darling, Victor Mete, ready to draw in.
STADT OF THE DAY
Fenwick For % (FF%)
Not referred to as often as Corsi, Fenwick is an additional measure of shot attempts that, unlike Corsi, does NOT include blocked shots. It holds value in the fact that it shows which team had a greater percentage of shots that made it through the layers of defence, but is a smaller sample size, and therefore not as useful in analysis and future performance prediction.
NEXT UP
The 3-0 Dallas Stars led by former Leaf Mason Marchment (5 points) come to town on Thursday night. We’ll likely see Jason Robertson (5 points) face his brother Nick for the first time this season.